Internal rates of return for public R&D from VECM estimates for 17 OECD countries

In this paper we evaluate vector-error-correction model (VECM) estimations and simulations of a companion paper to show (i) internal rates of return to public R&D shocks of 17 OECD countries, (ii) the related payback periods, gain/GDP ratios, and discounted (at 4%) net present values, (iii) the underlying effects of public R&D shocks on domestic and foreign private and public R&D stocks. 14 countries show high internal rates of return from positive public R&D shocks if projects are stopped when gains get negative. Three countries show crowding out effects and require (initial) reductions of public R&D before showing positive results through crowding in of private R&D.

Keywords: R&D, growth, returns

JEL Classification: H43, H54, O32, O47