Mission-oriented R&D and growth of Japan 1988-2016: A comparison with private and public R&D

We analyze the dynamic interaction of Japan's total factor productivity (TFP), GDP, stocks of domestic and foreign private and public as well as mission-oriented R&D, called GBARD in OECD statistics, in a vector-error-correction model (VECM) for Japan with stock data for the period 1987-2016. Permanent policy changes show the following main results: (i) GBARD as well as private and public R&D each encourage growth rates of the other R&D stocks and of TFP and GDP, and all have high internal rates of return; (ii) Japan's R&D policies affect and are affected by foreign R&D; in particular, Japan's public R&D has a positive impact on European private R&D, whereas other OECD countries' R&D has a negative one; (iii) permanent foreign public R&D changes are detrimental to Japan's growth of TFP and GDP. Japan's R&D policies should be supported by education policies enhancing especially the number of PhDs and IT personnel.

Keywords: R&D, productivity, growth, cointegration, cointegrated vector-auto-regression model (VECM)

JEL Classification: F43, O19, O47, O53