Do pandemics lead to rebellion? Policy responses to COVID-19, inequality, and protests in the USA
Francesco Iacoella, Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano
#2021-014
This paper analyses how inequality across counties in the United States
of America has shaped the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the
incidence of protests. The empirical analysis combines weekly data
between January and December 2020 on levels of COVID-19-related policy
stringency and protest incidence at the county level with measures of
county-level inequality at the start of the pandemic. The results show
that more stringent measures to contain the pandemic were instrumental
in driving the incidence of protests, but only in counties with high
levels of inequality before the start of the pandemic, where grievances
may have been initially stronger. Further analysis suggests that the
impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic is largely
explained by changes in economic conditions (rise in unemployment and
changes in economic activities and spending) in counties with the
highest levels of inequality. Unequal counties with lower trust in
political institutions but higher levels of social trust and civic
engagement at the start of the pandemic are also more likely to
experience more protests as a response to more stringent policies.
Key words: I18, D63, D70
JEL classification: COVID-19, lockdown, protests, inequality