From trends in commodities and manufactures to country terms of trade

Thomas Ziesemer


The debate about the Prebisch-Singer thesis has focussed on primary commodities with some extensions to manufactures. As we think that the link between the terms of trade and longrun development, growth and convergence is the ability of exports to enhance investment through importing capital goods we analyse trends in country terms-of-trade. We use two data sets. We find that for the poor countries the terms of trade of goods and services are falling at a rate that is less negative than for net-barter terms of trade and those found earlier for primary commodities.

Key words: Prebisch-Singer thesis; country terms-of-trade; long-run development.

JEL codes: B23; F43; O19.

UNU-MERIT Working Papers ISSN 1871-9872

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