Diffusion paths for Micro Cogeneration Using Hydrogen in the Netherlands
Mattijs Taanman, Arend de Groot, René Kemp & Bart Verspagen
#2006-025
We estimate the diffusion of micro cogeneration systems (MiCoGen) using
hydrogen produced from natural gas in the Netherlands for the 2000-2050
period on the basis of economical factors. The diffusion is important
for the transition to a hydrogen economy based on renewables, with
natural gas paving the way for hydrogen from renewables which. For three
scenarios full diffusion takes place in the period 2020-2050. The most
important factors behind the diffusion are: growing energy demand,
resulting in lower hydrogen costs and higher energy costs in the
reference case and lower costs of MiCoGen stemming from learning
economies. The model is very ad-vanced by considering all costs
components for heterogeneous users which have been calculated for the
entire diffusion period. It is the first threshold diffusion model that
is being applied to the diffusion of technological clusters involving
new or adapted infrastructures.
Keywords; diffusion model; hydrogen; micro cogeneration
ISSN 1871-9872