Job displacement and routine-intensive occupations: evidence from a developing country

Antonio Soares Martins Neto, UNU - Merit

We investigate whether, following a layoff, workers previously employed in routine-intensive occupations bear a more significant decline in wages and more extended periods of unemployment. We use a rich Brazilian panel dataset and an occupation-task mapping to investigate the impact of job displacement in different groups, classified according to their tasks. Our results suggest a series of important stylized facts: (i) job displacement has a negative and lasting impact on wages; (ii) workers in routine-intensive occupations are more impacted than those in non-routine occupations in terms of wages (an increase of one point in the routine-intensity index results in a further decline of 1.2\% in workers’ relative wages) but not in terms of relative re-employment chances; (iii) our results indicate that workers in routine-intensive occupations are more likely to change occupations after the shock. However, those who do not switch occupational fields bear a more significant decline in wages, partially explained by workers moving to low-paying firms.

About the speaker

Antonio Martins is a Ph.D. Fellow at United Nations University (UNU-MERIT). Before joining the Ph.D. program, Antonio worked as a consultant at the World Bank and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Previous experience also includes Associate Economic Affairs Officer at the United Nations and Associate Economist at the Federation of Industries of the State of Ceará. Antonio holds a Master’s degree from the University of São Paulo (Brazil) and a Bachelor’s degree from the Federal University of Ceará (Brazil). Research interest includes Private Sector Development, Labor Economics, and Innovation.

Date: 24 February 2022

Time: 12:00 - 13:00  CEST