Fundamental Economic Structure and Structural Change in Regional Economies: Concept and Applications

Sudhir Thakur, California State University Sacramento

This study provides an understanding of the economic structure and structural changes in India and Chile utilizing the fundamental economic structure (FES) approach. The FES construct states that certain selected characteristics of an economy will vary predictably with economic size, as measured by gross national product, population, total gross output and total value added. The central problem addressed in this study concerns the question whether identifiable patterns of relations between various macro aggregates and economic transactions can be revealed via input-output tables.  Jensen, West and Hewings (1988) discussed the ‘tiered’, ‘partitioned’, and ‘temporal’ approaches to the identification of FES using input-output tables. This study addresses the following four research questions: (1) Does temporal/regional FES exist at predictable levels in India and Chile? What proportions of the cells are predictable in a statistical sense? 2) Can a fundamental economic structure be identified at different geographical scales in India and Chilean economy? (3) Can the temporal/regional FES be utilized to predict the intermediate transaction matrix for India, Punjab and Santiago region in Chilean economy? (4) Can the small sample problem be addressed using cross-entropy method? Four regression models: linear-linear, Linear-logarithmic, linear-inverse, and linear-logarithmic of inverse are run to identify the largest proportion of predictable FES cells and non-FES cells for the Indian and Chilean economy. Small sample estimation issues are addressed applying the cross-entropy approach. Six input-output tables for India, 21 and 13 regional input-output tables for India and Chile provide data for analysis. Analysis reveals temporal FES includes primary, secondary and tertiary sectors as components, and regional FES in India consists of primary and secondary sectors. Chile comprised chemicals, rubber, petroleum, and plastics as well as public services among several other fundamental industries. This research has extended the notion of FES to include weak, moderate and strong FES activities. 

About the speaker

Dr. Sudhir Thakur is a Professor of Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) at the College of Business, California State University Sacramento (CSU). He has been a faculty at CSUS for more than sixteen years. His prior teaching experiences include Mihaylo College of Business and Economics, California State University, Fullerton (CSUF), University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, Kent State and The Ohio State Universities, Ohio.

He received his education in Business (10+2, St. Xavier’s High School, Delhi, 1984), BA (Honors in Economics and Mathematics, University of Delhi, 1987), MA (Economics, Panjab University, 1996), MA (Urban Planning, University of Akron, 1998), and PhD (Economic Geography, The Ohio State University, 2004). His research interests are broadly in the areas of Analytical Economic Geography and Quantitative Methods. His substantive research inquiry are in the areas of regional economic structure, input-output modeling, spatial statistics, natural resource development and Indian Economy. In addition, he is interested in analyzing inter-industry, income and public debt data for India (and developing nations) from a regional analytic perspective.  He has published six co-edited research books and twenty-five peer review journal articles as well as book chapters. He teaches managerial statistical analysis at the graduate level and real estate analytics at the undergraduate level. 

He has been a consultant with the World Institute of Development Economics Research (WIDER) in Helsinki and Department of Insurance, Sacramento. For his contribution to regional economic analysis, the Regional Development Planning Specialty Group (RDPSG) awarded him the Distinguished Service Award (2007), Emerging Scholar Award (2011). In addition, the California State University Sacramento (2015-16) awarded him the Research and Creativity Award. He was a Program Scholar at the Inter-University Consortium of Political and Social Research (ICPSR) summer program in quantitative methods at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (2017 and 2019). He delivered the prestigious RN Dubey Memorial Lecture at the University of Allahabad (2018). He has guest lectured at the Delhi School of Economics, Panjab University, Central University of Bihar, and MD University (Rohtak). He has presented his research at the United Nations University-WIDER (Helsinki), Regional Science Association International meetings and Association of American Geographers in North America.

He is a Visiting Fellow in the Department of Geography, The Ohio State University as well as York Center for Asian Research and Department of Environmental and Urban Change, York University, Canada.

Date: 16 December 2021

Time: 12:00 - 13:00  CEST