The macroeconomic impact of weather and climate

Pierluigi Montalbano, Sapienza University of Rome

We propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth. We adopt a stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of technical inefficiency and test it on a sample of 160 countries over the period 1950-2014. Results reconcile inconsistencies in previous studies: climate determines production possibilities in both rich and poor countries, whereas weather anomalies enhance inefficiency only in poor countries. Extrapolating on a long-run perspective, permanent changes in climate will affect the potential growth rate in all countries, but increases in the frequency of weather shocks will reduce the actual growth rate predominantly in poor countries.

About the speaker

Pierluigi Montalbano is Associate Professor of International Economic Policy at Sapienza University of Rome (IT) and Associate Faculty at Department of Economics, University of Sussex (UK). Chair Holder of the Jean Monnet Chair on "Rethinking EU Trade Policy for Development". CRUI Representative in the National Consultative Committee for Impact Evaluation, DGCS, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation; Director of MSc on "Migration and Development", Sapienza University of Rome (IT); Member of Governing Body of the Doctoral School in Economics , Sapienza-University of Rome; Member of the Italian Center for International Development (ICID), University of Tor Vergata and Centro Ricerche Economiche e Sociali Rossi-Doria (CRES), Roma Tre University. He is author and co-author of several, national and international articles and scientific publications and invited speakers at several national and international conferences and seminars. He has consultant experience, both as project leader and senior expert, with several national and international institutions, including the Italian Government; the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the European Commission; the European Economic and Social Committee; The World Bank; The International Development Bank; the FAO; the Global Development Network; the OECD-DAC, etc. His research interests lie at the crossover between International Economics and Development. The most recent research activities include: i) the empirical and theoretical analysis of the main determinants of macroeconomic and microeconomic instability with particular attention to developing economies; ii) the empirical analysis of the effects of global value chains and multilateral and regional trade integration, with particular attention to emerging economies. More info at

Venue: Conference room (0.16 & 0.17)

Date: 07 February 2019

Time: 12:00 - 13:00