Did polls really fail in the US elections?

Eduardo Gamarra, Green School of Public and International Affairs

Donald Trump's surprise victory has led many to conclude that the polling industry failed again to predict the outcome of an electoral contest. In 2016 polls failed to predict the results of the Brexit and the Colombia Peace Referenda. The November 8 results in the United States has led to some observers to predict the demise of the polling industry. Did polls in the United States really fail?  Dr. Gamarra will argue that the polls were accurate but their interpretation, especially by the media, was wrong.  Additionally, he will argue that given contemporary challenges to conducting accurate polling through traditional means such as telephone polling, pollsters are working with various alternatives including online and mobile advertising alternatives.

Venue: UNU-MERIT Conference Room 0.16-0.17

Date: 21 November 2016

Time: 14:00 - 15:00