The influence of vulnerability on migration intentions in Afghanistan
Craig Loschmann & Melissa Siegel
#2013-038
This study explores the influence of vulnerability on migration
intentions within the context of Afghanistan. While it is commonplace to
conceptualize migration as being driven by certain economic-related
factors, it is reasonable to assume that in an insecure setting like
Afghanistan the difference between voluntary and involuntary movement is
not easily distinguishable, making it necessary to approach the subject
through a spectrum which does not presuppose migration is strictly
economic in nature. With this in mind, we consider the issue through the
broader lens of household vulnerability, a measure which incorporates a
range of socio-economic factors allowing for a more comprehensive
analysis. We first construct a profile of household vulnerability
through individual indicators of deprivation along four principle
dimensions, and then perform a regression analysis estimating the
influence on migration intentions. Our results provide clear evidence
that vulnerable households have a lower likelihood of concrete plans to
migrate. This result supports the suggestion that it is not the "poorest
of the poor", or in our case the "most vulnerable of the vulnerable" who
aspire to move, indicating households have a realistic understanding of
their capabilities taking into consideration the inherent costs and
risks associated with cross-border movement.
Keywords: Migration Intentions, Migration Motivations, Vulnerability,
Poverty, Afghanistan
JEL Codes: I32, O15