Alumni

Dr. Aziz Atamanov

Thesis:
Rural nonfarm employment and international migration as alternatives to agricultural employment: The case of Kyrgyzstan

Year: 2011

Promotor(s):
Adam Szirmai and Marrit van den Berg

Abstract:
Little is known about the rural nonfarm economy (RNFE) in post-soviet Central Asia, where agriculture can hardly sustain the pressure of abundant labour force on limited land resources. Moreover, there is scarce empirical evidence on the determinants of another alternative to agriculture - international migration - distinguishing between seasonal and permanent moves and exploring their interrelationships with local income generating activities. Finally, those few studies on the impact of migration and remittances on local income sources often ignore heterogeneity across rural households and the types of migration which can lead to misleading results and inhibit developing of more targeted policy measures. Based on several nationally representative household budget surveys, this dissertation addresses a number of issues related to the determinants and effects of local and international alternatives to agricultural employment in the rural areas of the Kyrgyz Republic. Empirical findings demonstrate that in recent years both local nonfarm activities and international migration have played an important role in the rural areas of the Kyrgyz Republic in the context of a stagnating small-scale agricultural sector constrained by numerous market imperfections. In line with the “push” factors, nonfarm income is found to play a more important role in the total income of poor rural individuals with lack of land confirming that barriers to access the RNFE are not substantial. Nevertheless, the lack of education, credit constraints and inadequate infrastructure limit the ability of the poor to move towards more remunerative nonfarm activities In contrast to local nonfarm activities, high transportation and settlement costs make international migration a not easily accessible option for rural households with small land holdings, excluding those in need for additional income to complement limited agricultural base. This implies that at the current stage local nonfarm activities and international migration do not overlap much with each other and provide income-generating opportunities to households with different levels of assets. However, other empirical findings make the interrelationships between two activities more complicated. In particular, we show that better education is the key determinant of both permanent migration and nonfarm wage employment, but that it does not play any role in the choice between participation in seasonal migration, local nonfarm self-employment and working at home in the agricultural sector. Therefore, the expected returns to education are higher for permanent migrants who undertake formal employment in comparison to short-term low-skilled jobs of seasonal migrants. Accordingly, the loss of better educated permanent migrants can potentially have a negative impact on formal employment in nonfarm activities, while the loss of seasonal migrants is not likely to generate a brain drain effect and may be less harmful for local development. In addition to being an important alternative to agriculture, international migration and associated remittances have a complex impact on agricultural productivity and crop income. In line with the New Economics of Labour Migration, remittances are found to stimulate agricultural productivity and as a result crop income, but the positive effect only holds for seasonal migration because this does not generate significant lost labour effects. At the same time, the positive impact of remittances on crop income is outweighed by significant negative lost labour effect for permanent migrants. This makes net effect from permanent migration on crop income negative. Importantly the positive impact of remittances on crop income is only found for small and middle size farms, which probably face stronger liquidity constraints and are more productive than large farms. Overall, one should not expect permanent migration to revive agricultural growth through higher productivity, but this potential may well exist for seasonal migration in the long run.

Selected publications by Aziz Atamanov


Articles (journal, professional, popular)
Atamanov, Aziz & M. van den Berg, 2012, `International labour migration and local rural activities in the Kyrgyz Republic: Determinants and trade-offs, Central Asian Survey, 31, More information
Atamanov, Aziz & Marrit van den Berg, 2012, `Participation and returns in rural nonfarm activities: evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic, Agricultural Economics, 43, More information
Atamanov, Aziz & Marrit van den Berg, 2012, `International labour migration and local rural activities in the Kyrgyz Republic: determinants and trade-offs, Central Asian Survey, DOI:10.1080/02634937.2012.671992, More information
Atamanov, Aziz & Marrit Van den Berg, 2012, `Rural Nonfarm Activities in Central Asia: A Regional Analysis of Magnitude, Structure, Evolution and Drivers in the Kyrgyz Republic, Europe-Asia Studies, 64, More information
Atamanov, Aziz & Marrit Van den Berg, 2012, `Heterogeneous Effects of International Migration and Remittances on Crop Income: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic, World Development, 40, More information


Book chapters
Mogilevsky, Roman & Aziz Atamanov, 2011, Technical Assistance to CIS countries, in: Dabrowski, M. and Maliszewska, M, EU Eastern Neighborhood. Economic Potential and Future Development, Springer, Germany, Berlin, More information
Atamanov, Aziz & Roman Mogilevsky, 2009, Remittances and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Situation of and Financial Sector Development in the Kyrgyz Republic, in: G.Kochendorfer-Lucius and B.Plescovic, Spatial Disparities and Development Policy, The World Bank, Washington, USA, More information


UNU-MERIT Working Papers
Atamanov, Aziz & Marrit van den Berg, 2012, Determinants of the rural nonfarm economy in Tajikistan, UNU-MERIT Working Paper 2012-080
Atamanov, Aziz & M. van den Berg, 2011, International migration and local employment: analysis of self-selection and earnings in Tajikistan, UNU-MERIT Working Paper 2011-047
Atamanov, Aziz & M. van den Berg, 2011, Microeconomic analysis of rural nonfarm activities in the Kyrgyz Republic: What determines participation and returns?, UNU-MERIT Working Paper 2011-011


MGSoG Working Papers
Atamanov, Aziz, 2011, Microeconomic analysis of rural nonfarm activities in the Kyrgyz Republic: What determines participation and returns?, MGSoG Working Paper 2011-001
Atamanov, Aziz & M. van den Berg, 2010, Determinants of remittances in Central Asia: evidence based on the household budget survey in the Kyrgyz Republic, MGSoG Working Paper 2010-007
Atamanov, Aziz & M. van den Berg, 2010, Rural non-farm activities in Central Asia: A regional analysis of magnitude, structure, evolution and drivers in the Kyrgyz Republic, MGSoG Working Paper 2010-005


External working papers
Atamanov, Aziz, C. Wieser, H. Uematsu, N. Yoshida, M. C. Nguyen, J. P. Azevedo & R. Dewina, 2016, Robustness of shared prosperity estimates : how different methodological choices matter, Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 7611. Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, More information
Atamanov, Aziz, Mohammad-Hadi Mostafavi, Djavad Salehi Isfahani & Tara Vishwanath, 2016, Constructing robust poverty trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 2008-14, Policy Research Working Paper Series 7836, The World Bank, More information
Atamanov, Aziz, J. Jellema & U. Serajuddin, 2015, Energy subsidies reform in Jordan: welfare implications of different scenarios, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7313. World Bank, More information
Azevedo, J. P. , Aziz Atamanov & A. Rajabov, 2014, Poverty reduction and shared prosperity in Tajikistan : a diagnostic, Policy Research Working Paper Series 6923, The World Bank, More information
Azevedo, J. P. & Aziz Atamanov, 2014, Pathways to the middle class in Turkey: how have reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity helped?, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6834. World Bank, More information
Atamanov, Aziz, 2013, Regional welfare disparities in the Kyrgyz Republic, The main goal of this paper is to analyze regional disparities in the Kyrgyz Republic by quantifying and separating the gap in regional welfare disparities in 2011 into two parts: the first part associated with observable characteristics of households and, More information


Theses
Atamanov, Aziz, 2011, Rural nonfarm employment and international migration as alternatives to agricultural employment: The case of Kyrgyzstan, MGSoG Dissertation Series, More information

UNU-MERIT