Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models
Thomas Ziesemer
#2017-036
Endogenous growth theory has produced formulas for steady-state growth
rates of income per capita which are linear in the growth rate of the
population. Depending on the details of the models, slopes and
intercepts are positive, zero or negative. Empirical tests have taken
over the assumption of exogenous population growth from the theoretical
models and have mostly not distinguished steady-state results from
transitional growth. In contrast, we assume (i) that there is two-way
causality and (ii) capture the steady-state property by a long-term
relation in a series of vector-error-correction models allowing (iii)
successively for more heterogeneity. The slope of the growth equations
is positive in this setting. Intercepts are most frequently also
positive, but almost equally often zero, and sometimes even negative.
Although results slightly favour fully- over semi-endogenous growth, and
the slightly more frequent case is that long-run growth can remain
positive if population stops growing, zero or negative intercepts cannot
be ruled out.
JEL Classification: C33, O47
Keywords: Endogenous growth, population growth, panel times series estimation