Financial analysis of a biochemical cellulosic ethanol plant and the impact of potential regulatory measures
Martin Kügemann
#2015-057
The financial model presented in this paper analyses which regulations
work best in order to incentivise investments into Biochemical
Cellulosic Ethanol Plants (BCEP). The production technology utilised in
these plants is currently in the decisive development stage called
"valley of death". Rather than looking at the whole economy, the
financial model is concerned with the "micro level" of an investment in
one particular BCEP under variable combinations of assumptions and
prevailing economic conditions. To this end, it combines policy and
techno-economic analyses by modelling future cash flows under varying
input assumptions. Transportation and feedstock costs, as well as
bioethanol prices are assumed to be correlated and to follow a random
walk. Their impact on the outcome of the financial model is analysed by
applying Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of certain regulations is
evaluated by economic indicators such as net present value, internal
rate of return, payback period, and the relative cost of subsidy. The
results show that an "ideally fixed" price policy - a combination of a
fixed price component and the variable price development of the relevant
input factors - works best in relation to expected returns and cost of
subsidy. This implies an important lesson for policy makers, who should
favour flexible price mechanisms over simple fixed price regulations.
JEL Classification: E27, G11, G38, Q16
Key words: Second-generation biofuel, cellulosic ethanol, regulation,
policy, investment, technology valley of death, Monte Carlo simulation,
financial modelling, techno-economic modelling